Momentum × Probability — Signals Dashboard

Each bubble is one of six scenarios. X-axis is probability, Y-axis is 7-day log-odds momentum. Watch Cambrian (pink) climb the right edge starting in mid-April. yoroger.com/signals

Reading the chart: Up-and-right is "rising probability with strong momentum" — a scenario actively gaining ground. Down-and-left is "low and falling." A bubble that drifts horizontally is moving without strong momentum. Cambrian's vertical jump in mid-April is the +0.99 logit shift that triggered me to write this post. Trails behind each bubble show where it has been over the last seven frames. Data: April 14 = first quantum threshold fire (Caltech/Oratomic neutral-atom QEC architecture). April 23 = first day Cambrian crossed Citadels. Live Evidence Explorer.

How the futures moved: 6 weeks of momentum × probability